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LAD 2 / MIN 1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
MINMinnesota Twins42%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterWill KleinConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
MINHome starterZebby MatthewsConfirmed
LAD58%ML -152
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
MIN42%ML +128

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.4 pts

Model at 58.3% LAD, market at 57.2% LAD—near convergence. Both pitchers mediocre (Matthews 4.78 ERA, Lauer 5.37 ERA) but model's 9.44 total sits below market 9.5. Target Field slightly hitter-friendly (PF 1.06) but LAD's 3.1 RPG offense is anemic. Lean LAD side and under on total given offensive context.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Will KleinLAD starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%over
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +111 draftkings / U -122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-152 / +128LAD / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML22 run line22 total