MLB / mlb / live
STL 4 / MIN 5STLSt. Louis Cardinals47%
MINMinnesota Twins53%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMichael McGreevyConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
STL47%ML -106
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
MIN53%ML -114
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 draftkings / U -118 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -150 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -114STL / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -117
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total