MLB / mlb / live
STL 9 / MIN 6STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%
MINMinnesota Twins47%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMatthew Liberatore
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterConnor Prielipp
STL53%ML -111
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
MIN47%ML -106
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +103 draftkings / U -114 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Connor PrielippMIN starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 betmgm / U +114 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%under
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-111 / -106STL / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -104 / U -117
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total