MLB / mlb / live
STL 8 / MIN 9STLSt. Louis Cardinals46%
MINMinnesota Twins54%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterKyle Leahy
Model pickMIN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterJoe Ryan
STL46%ML +114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
MIN54%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Kyle LeahySTL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 bovada / U +135 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Joe RyanMIN starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +130 fanduel / U -160 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+114 / -136STL / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total