MLB / mlb / live
CHW 8 / MIN 0CHWChicago White Sox53%
MINMinnesota Twins47%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterErick Fedde
Model pickCHW moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterTaj Bradley
CHW53%ML +125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIN47%ML -150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.1 pts
Model favors CHW 53% but market has MIN at 58%. Away pitcher Fedde has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP) despite data_quality='full'—structural uncertainty. Bradley's 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is tiny sample noise. Market knows more here; lean MIN but no conviction.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -150CHW / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -112 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total