MLB / mlb / live
CHW 6 / MIN 9CHWChicago White Sox46%
MINMinnesota Twins54%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterDavid Sandlin
Model pickMIN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterJoe Ryan
CHW46%ML +122
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIN54%ML -144
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts
Away starter is TBD with fallback data showing 6.75 ERA across 4 IP—completely unreliable. Joe Ryan's 0.00 ERA in 5.1 IP is too small to trust despite elite K/9. Model at 53.6% vs market at 59.4% for MIN creates uncertainty. CHW's better offense (5.7 RPG, .729 OPS) vs MIN (4.5 RPG, .673 OPS) supports the offense_defense_mismatch flag. Passing until starter clarity emerges.
pitcher data fallbackoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+122 / -144CHW / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -115
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total