MLB / mlb / live
MIL 4 / MIN 5MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
MINMinnesota Twins54%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterRobert Gasser
Model pickMIN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterBailey Ober
MIL46%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
MIN54%ML +103
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.1 pts
Ober's 4.0 IP with 6.75 ERA is too small to trust; Gasser has null season stats entirely. Model picks MIN despite worse record and worse offense—textbook offense_defense_mismatch. Market has MIL -119, model has MIN 53.6%. Total: model 9.07 vs market 8.0, park factor 1.06 argues over if pitchers can't suppress.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +103MIL / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -117
31 books30 ML22 run line22 total