MLB / mlb / live
MIL 4 / MIN 5MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
MINMinnesota Twins54%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterRobert Gasser
Model pickMIN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterBailey Ober
MIL46%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIN54%ML +103
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.6 pts
Ober's 4.0 IP with 6.75 ERA is too small to trust; Gasser has null season stats entirely. Model picks MIN despite worse record and worse offense—textbook offense_defense_mismatch. Market has MIL -119, model has MIN 53.6%. Total: model 9.07 vs market 8.0, park factor 1.06 argues over if pitchers can't suppress.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +103MIL / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -117
31 books30 ML22 run line22 total