MLB / mlb / live
MIA 1 / MIN 9MIAMiami Marlins46%
MINMinnesota Twins54%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterBraxton Garrett
Model pickMIN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterZebby Matthews
MIA46%ML +106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIN54%ML -126
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.4 pts
Away pitcher is TBD with fallback stats (5.4 ERA in 5 IP over 10 GS is clearly team aggregate). Matthews has 10 starts but all stats are null, suggesting recent callup or data gap. Model leans MIA 52% vs market 46%; both essentially coin flips. Cannot form a defensible view without knowing who is actually pitching.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+106 / -126MIA / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total