MLB / mlb / live
MIA 9 / MIN 5MIAMiami Marlins45%
MINMinnesota Twins55%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterMax Meyer
Model pickMIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterSimeon Woods Richardson
MIA45%ML -125
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIN55%ML +105
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.7 pts
Model favors MIN 54.7% but market leans MIA (implied 53.1%). MIA's .774 OPS vs MIN's .673 is a large gap. Model's 8.97 total vs market 8.5 suggests over lean, consistent with Target Field's 1.06 park factor. Woods Richardson missing all season stats raises uncertainty; defer slightly to market side.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +105MIA / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total