MLB / mlb / live
TOR 11 / MIN 4TORToronto Blue Jays56%
MINMinnesota Twins44%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterDylan Cease
Model pickTOR moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterConnor Prielipp
TOR56%ML -131
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
MIN44%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.8 pts
Cease's 1.69 ERA and 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP is microscopic sample, but market respects it at -121. Prielipp is pure fallback data—no ERA, IP, or K/9 to work with. Model predicts 9.33 total vs market 7.5; that 1.83 gap screams structural miss on Cease's small-sample dominance. Lean TOR and under.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-131 / +110TOR / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total