MLB / mlb / live
SEA 5 / MIN 3SEASeattle Mariners49%
MINMinnesota Twins51%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterGeorge Kirby
Model pickMIN moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterTaj Bradley
SEA49%ML -130
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
MIN51%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.8 pts
Model has MIN 50.6%, market has SEA -123 (55%). George Kirby (1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP in 6.0 IP) vs Taj Bradley (2.08 ERA, 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP) is an ace matchup that should suppress scoring. Model total of 9.06 is 1.56 runs above market 7.5—structural miss on elite pitching. SEA's superior offense (.793 OPS vs .673) justifies slight lean away.
total far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-130 / +110SEA / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML23 run line21 total