MLB / mlb / live
CIN 4 / MIL 3CINCincinnati Reds44%
MILMilwaukee Brewers56%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase BurnsConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
MILHome starterRobert GasserConfirmed
CIN44%ML +164
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIL56%ML -200
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 draftkings / U +124 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.578%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Robert GasserMIL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -160 fanatics / U +134 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+164 / -200CIN / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total