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CIN 0 / MIL 20
CINCincinnati Reds46%
MILMilwaukee Brewers54%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline54%Model 20260907_auto
MILHome starterDustin MayConfirmed
CIN46%ML +169
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIL54%ML -200

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.5 pts

Model's 53.6% on MIL is well under the market's 62% despite Milwaukee sitting 91-56 with a .972 OPS against a Cincinnati offense at .629. The market read looks better here. Model total of 9.15 is 1.65 above the 7.5 line; American Family Field at 0.95 park factor plus a weak CIN bat argues under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 fanduel / U +131 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Dustin MayMIL starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 bovada / U +108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+169 / -200CIN / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+106)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total