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PIT 2 / MIL 5
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
MILMilwaukee Brewers53%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline53%Model 20260803_auto
MILHome starterDustin MayConfirmed
PIT47%ML +107
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIL53%ML -124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.8 pts

Market implies 55.9% on MIL versus the model's 53.1%; I side with the market — Milwaukee is 71-43 and Pittsburgh's 3.3 RPG on a .710 OPS is the weakest input in this game. The model's 9.00-run total is 1.5 above the 7.5 line despite a 0.95 park factor and two starters at 3.96 and 4.38 ERA, which reads as a structural miss. Under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -136 fanduel / U +115 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Dustin MayMIL starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betmgm / U +106 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+107 / -124PIT / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total