MLB / mlb / live
scheduledPITPittsburgh Pirates43%
MILMilwaukee Brewers57%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterJared JonesProbable
Model pickMIL moneyline57%Model 20260803_auto
MILHome starterLogan HendersonProbable
PIT43%ML +135
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
MIL57%ML -162
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.7
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.584%
O 3.568%
O 4.550%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Logan HendersonMIL starter / home
Projected K5.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.592%
O 3.581%
O 4.567%
O 5.551%
O 6.536%
O 7.523%
O 8.514%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -162PIT / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total