MLB / mlb / live
NYM 4 / MIL 0NYMNew York Mets42%
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260720_auto
MILHome starterBrandon SproatConfirmed
NYM42%ML +116
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIL58%ML -136
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanatics / U -138 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Brandon SproatMIL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -157 draftkings / U +136 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+116 / -136NYM / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total