sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CIN 2 / MIL 7
CINCincinnati Reds47%
MILMilwaukee Brewers53%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterRhett LowderConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
MILHome starterBrandon SproatConfirmed
CIN47%ML +145
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
MIL53%ML -172

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.6 pts

Market has MIL at 61.6% vs model's 53.2% — an 8.4 point gap flags structural disagreement. Model predicts 7.34 runs vs market 9.0, a 1.66-run miss. Sproat (5.43 ERA) and Lowder (4.81 ERA) are both mediocre starters; pitcher park (0.95 PF) argues under, not the total gap the model sees. Lean MIL on market strength but pass total confidence.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -148 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Brandon SproatMIL starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +101 draftkings / U -112 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+145 / -172CIN / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -119 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total