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CHC 8 / MIL 2
CHCChicago Cubs48%
MILMilwaukee Brewers52%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
MILHome starterKyle HarrisonConfirmed
CHC48%ML +130
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
MIL52%ML -156

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.6 pts

Market strongly favors MIL at 60% implied vs model's 51.7%. Peterson's 6.09 ERA in 68 IP is legitimate weakness. However, MIL's 1.3 RPG is alarmingly low for a 45-34 team, suggesting regression or data issue. Model total 9.25 vs market 8.0 reflects Peterson's vulnerability. Lean CHC as value but confidence limited by MIL's strange offensive profile.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -139 betrivers / U +130 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 5.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%over
O 8.523%over
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+130 / -156CHC / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total