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CLE 4 / MIL 2
CLECleveland Guardians51%
MILMilwaukee Brewers49%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterParker MessickConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
MILHome starterShane DrohanConfirmed
CLE51%ML +122
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
MIL49%ML -146

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.3 pts

Model picks CLE 51.5% but market heavily favors MIL (58.2% implied). MIL's 7.1 RPG vs CLE's 3.0 RPG is a 4.1-run gap — offense_defense_mismatch flag fires because model backs the worse offense. Model total 9.12 vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run miss in a pitcher park (PF 0.95). Messick's 2.68 ERA in 80.7 IP is real; model underweights SP quality. Side with market on MIL, lean under on inflated total.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -130 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Shane DrohanMIL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -121 draftkings / U +102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+122 / -146CLE / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total