MLB / mlb / live
CLE 4 / MIL 9CLECleveland Guardians51%
MILMilwaukee Brewers49%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
MILHome starterBrandon SproatConfirmed
CLE51%ML +106
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
MIL49%ML -127
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.530%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Brandon SproatMIL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+106 / -127CLE / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total