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PHI 0 / MIL 4
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies42%
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterKyle HarrisonConfirmed
PHI42%ML -130
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
MIL58%ML +110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.8 pts

Model loves MIL at 57.5% but market has PHI favored at 51.9%. Ace matchup (Harrison 2.72 ERA, Sánchez 1.54 ERA) in a pitcher park (0.95 PF) screams under. Model's 8.99 total is 2.5 runs over market 6.5 — structural miss on elite SP quality. PHI offense is weak (.57 OPS) but Sánchez is legit. Market right here.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K7.2Actual 3 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +122 fanduel / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 7.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%under
O 4.583%under
O 5.571%under
O 6.557%under
O 7.543%under
O 8.531%under
O 9.521%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 betmgm / U +118 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%under
O 4.581%under
O 5.569%under
O 6.554%under
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-130 / +110PHI / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total