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PHI 0 / MIL 6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies35%
MILMilwaukee Brewers65%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterTanner Banks
Model pickMIL moneyline65%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterJacob Misiorowski
PHI35%ML +208
Base model probability65%Moneyline only
MIL65%ML -251

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.7 pts

Market heavily favors MIL at 68.9% vs model's 65.2%. Misiorowski's 1.50 ERA over 78 IP is elite but his SHAP features oddly include 'home_rolling_short_home_runs_allowed' as top margin driver, suggesting defensive leakage. PHI's offense is anemic (.570 OPS, 4.7 RPG) but Painter's 6.21 ERA creates run environment. Model total 8.8 vs market 7.5 is a 1.3 gap; lean over given MIL's 8.4 RPG pace.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.9
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Tanner BanksPHI starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.553%under
O 3.531%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K8.7Actual 15 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +100 betrivers / U -110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 8.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%over
O 4.592%over
O 5.585%over
O 6.575%over
O 7.563%over
O 8.550%over
O 9.538%over
O 10.527%over
O 11.519%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 15 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+208 / -251PHI / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total