MLB / mlb / live
LAD 1 / MIL 5LADLos Angeles Dodgers40%
MILMilwaukee Brewers60%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterJustin Wrobleski
Model pickMIL moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterLogan Henderson
LAD40%ML -108
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
MIL60%ML -111
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.7 pts
Model has MIL 60% vs market coin flip. Large disagreement flag + offense_defense_mismatch both fire. LAD superior offense (5.4 RPG, .743 OPS vs 4.6/.972) yet model fades them. Missing pitcher stats make SP comparison unverifiable. Total 8.99 vs market 8.5 in pitcher park suggests over lean.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-108 / -111LAD / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-185)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -118
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total