MLB / mlb / live
NYY 3 / MIL 4NYYNew York Yankees55%
MILMilwaukee Brewers45%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCam Schlittler
Model pickNYY moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterKyle Harrison
NYY55%ML -143
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIL45%ML +120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.0 pts
Model projects 9.24 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.74 run gap triggers total_far_from_market. Both pitchers lack season IP/ERA/K9 data despite 10 starts each, making this structural noise not signal. Model moneyline (NYY 55.2%) vs market (NYY 57.1%) is close but total disconnect suggests missing context. Pass until pitcher stats resolve.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-143 / +120NYY / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-141)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total