MLB / mlb / live
NYY 3 / MIL 4NYYNew York Yankees56%
MILMilwaukee Brewers44%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCarlos Rodón
Model pickNYY moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterLogan Henderson
NYY56%ML -122
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
MIL44%ML +104
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.8 pts
Model favors NYY at 55.7% vs market 52.8%, but margin is essentially a coin flip at -0.84 runs. Both pitchers lack traditional stats (IP/ERA/K9 all null) despite multiple starts, creating structural uncertainty. Model total 9.18 vs market 8.0 is a meaningful 1.18-run gap; MIL's high OPS (.972 vs NYY .692) suggests offense, supporting over lean.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-122 / +104NYY / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total