MLB / mlb / live
NYY 0 / MIL 6NYYNew York Yankees53%
MILMilwaukee Brewers47%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterMax Fried
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterJacob Misiorowski
NYY53%ML -132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIL47%ML +110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.2 pts
Model has NYY 53% but market shows MIL +115 (46% implied), a 7-point gap favoring the home side the model underrates. Fried's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is extreme small-sample noise; Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 in 5 IP is equally suspect. Ace matchup + pitcher park argue under the 7.0 total despite model's 9.31.
total far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-132 / +110NYY / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U 0
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total