MLB / mlb / live
NYY 0 / MIL 6NYYNew York Yankees53%
MILMilwaukee Brewers47%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterMax Fried
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterJacob Misiorowski
NYY53%ML -132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
MIL47%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.3 pts
Model has NYY 53% but market shows MIL +115 (46% implied), a 7-point gap favoring the home side the model underrates. Fried's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is extreme small-sample noise; Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 in 5 IP is equally suspect. Ace matchup + pitcher park argue under the 7.0 total despite model's 9.31.
total far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +110NYY / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U 0
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total