MLB / mlb / live
ARI 1 / MIL 13ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
MILMilwaukee Brewers54%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMichael Soroka
Model pickMIL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterBrandon Woodruff
ARI46%ML +106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
MIL54%ML -125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.2 pts
Model has MIL 53.6%, market 53.8%—perfect convergence. Both pitchers show 10 starts but missing ERA/WHIP/K9 data entirely, making this effectively a blind spot. Model total 8.95 vs market 7.5 is a 1.45-run gap favoring over, likely driven by team offense stats. ARI's 5.7 RPG supports over lean despite missing pitcher context.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+106 / -125ARI / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total