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LAD 6 / MIA 2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers54%
MIAMiami Marlins46%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterBlake SnellConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline54%Model 20260907_auto
MIAHome starterRyan GustoConfirmed
LAD54%ML -204
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIA46%ML +170

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.5 pts

Model and market agree on LAD but the gap is wide (55.5% vs 66% implied), and the LAD starter is TBD with fallback stats (2.62 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) that may not reflect whoever actually pitches. LAD's 89-57 record and Gusto's 1.41 WHIP support the away side, but unresolved pitching caps conviction. No view on the total with the starter unknown despite the model sitting 1.4 runs above the 7.5 line.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Blake SnellLAD starter / away
Projected K6.5Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +110 betonlineag / U -120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 7.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.522%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -123 betonlineag / U +102 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-204 / +170LAD / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total