MLB / mlb / live
NYM 9 / MIA 4NYMNew York Mets46%
MIAMiami Marlins54%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterJonah TongConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline54%Model 20260907_auto
MIAHome starterEury PérezConfirmed
NYM46%ML +115
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIA54%ML -137
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.6
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jonah TongNYM starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 betrivers / U +102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.523%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.512%over
O 6.55%over
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Eury PérezMIA starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanduel / U +103 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -137NYM / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total