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CHC 3 / MIA 10
CHCChicago Cubs55%
MIAMiami Marlins45%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterClay HolmesConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260831_auto
MIAHome starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
CHC55%ML -139
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIA45%ML +120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts

Model (55% CHC) and market (-140, ~57%) agree on direction, so no comparison to fight. Holmes at 2.09 ERA/1.07 WHIP over 81.7 IP is the better of two solid starters vs Phillips' 3.43/1.33. Model's 9.25 total sits 1.25 above the market 8.0 despite the ace matchup and neutral park (1.01) — I side with the under. Team RPG/OPS lines look internally inconsistent, so I weight the pitching matchup more.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Clay HolmesCHC starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 fanatics / U -105 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +126 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-139 / +120CHC / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total