MLB / mlb / live
CHC 6 / MIA 5CHCChicago Cubs55%
MIAMiami Marlins45%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterJavier AssadConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260831_auto
MIAHome starterRyan GustoConfirmed
CHC55%ML -130
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIA45%ML +110
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Javier AssadCHC starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betmgm / U +104 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.537%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +116 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-130 / +110CHC / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -104
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total