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CHC 6 / MIA 1
CHCChicago Cubs50%
MIAMiami Marlins50%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
MIAHome starterJanson JunkConfirmed
CHC50%ML -169
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
MIA50%ML +144

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.4 pts

Model has MIA at 50.2% versus market-implied 40.9%, a 9-point gap with no clear structural justification; Chicago is 79-62 and Imanaga's 1.14 WHIP and 8.86 K/9 outclass Junk's 1.30 WHIP and 6.12 K/9. Model's 9.66-run total sits 1.66 above the market 8.0 in a neutral park (PF 1.01), so I lean under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -141 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 bovada / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-169 / +144CHC / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total