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WSN 2 / MIA 3
WSNWashington Nationals53%
MIAMiami Marlins47%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterBrad LordConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260817_auto
MIAHome starterRyan GustoConfirmed
WSN53%ML +125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIA47%ML -149

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.2 pts

Model's 53.3% on WSN sits ~11 points off the market's 57.9% for Miami, and it's backing the team with the worse record (61-68) and lower scoring rate (4.0 RPG). Lord's 4.04 ERA is only a modest comparison on Gusto's 4.70, not enough to overturn home field. Two 4.00+ ERA starters with 1.25/1.32 WHIPs in a neutral park (PF 1.01) makes 8.0 a low line.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brad LordWSN starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -105 draftkings / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 2.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%under
O 2.562%under
O 3.540%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 fanduel / U +135 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+125 / -149WSN / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -102
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total