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PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
MIAMiami Marlins42%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260727_auto
MIAHome starterRyan GustoConfirmed
PHI58%ML -175
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
MIA42%ML +145

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.6 pts

Model (58.3%) and market (61.2% implied) both favor PHI. Luzardo's 3.31 ERA over 122 IP is legitimate, Gusto's 4.50 in 34 IP is small-sample noisy. Model total of 8.46 exceeds market 7.5 by 1.0 runs; PHI's 4.2 RPG offense vs MIA's weak pitching depth supports over lean. Neutral park, no structural flags.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total10.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K6.7
Best price at 7.57.5O +105 betmgm / U -108 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.589%
O 4.578%
O 5.564%
O 6.549%
O 7.535%
O 8.524%
O 9.515%
O 10.59%
O 11.55%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.8
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 fanduel / U -143 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.572%
O 3.552%
O 4.533%
O 5.519%
O 6.510%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-175 / +145PHI / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total