MLB / mlb / live
PHI 0 / MIA 1PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
MIAMiami Marlins52%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron NolaConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline52%Model 20260727_auto
MIAHome starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
PHI48%ML +114
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
MIA52%ML -135
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -144 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 betonlineag / U -143 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -135PHI / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total