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PHI 7 / MIA 8
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies56%
MIAMiami Marlins44%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline56%Model 20260727_auto
MIAHome starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
PHI56%ML -197
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIA44%ML +165

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.5 pts

Wheeler (2.16 ERA, 10.53 K/9, 0.88 WHIP in 100 IP) is having an elite season against Miami's weak 2.7 RPG offense. Market at -178 implies 64% PHI; model at 55.9% is underweighting the pitching comparison. Phillips' 3.52 ERA is respectable but outmatched. Total: model 8.36 vs market 7.5 feels high given Wheeler's dominance.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +112 fanduel / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%under
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -124 draftkings / U +106 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-197 / +165PHI / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total