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CLE 5 / MIA 2
CLECleveland Guardians40%
MIAMiami Marlins60%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
MIAHome starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
CLE40%ML -110
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
MIA60%ML -109

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.3 pts

Model has MIA at 59.8% vs market's 50.5% — a 9.3pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Neither team presents clear comparison: CLE superior pitching (Cantillo 9.0 K/9 vs Phillips 6.69 K/9), MIA superior offense (.774 OPS vs .600 OPS). Model total 8.67 vs market 7.5 suggests over, driven by MIA's offense at neutral park.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -165 betmgm / U +132 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +145 bovada / U -170 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.572%under
O 2.547%under
O 3.526%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -109CLE / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.3 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total