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CLE 4 / MIA 1
CLECleveland Guardians40%
MIAMiami Marlins60%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
MIAHome starterEury PérezConfirmed
CLE40%ML +134
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
MIA60%ML -160

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts

Model has MIA 59.8%, market 57.4% — modest agreement favoring home. MIA offense (6.7 RPG, .774 OPS) vs CLE (4.2 RPG, .600 OPS) is a real comparison. Model total 8.96 vs market 7.5 is a 1.46-run gap; MIA's bat strength and neutral park suggest over has merit, but no ace matchup to suppress scoring.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 betonlineag / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Eury PérezMIA starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 draftkings / U -128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 6.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+134 / -160CLE / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total