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TEX 2 / MIA 4
TEXTexas Rangers45%
MIAMiami Marlins55%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterJacob deGromConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline55%Model 20260622_auto
MIAHome starterEury PérezConfirmed
TEX45%ML -120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIA55%ML +102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.9 pts

Model favors MIA 54.6% but market slightly prefers TEX at 52.3%. DeGrom's 3.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP vs Pérez's 4.60 ERA tips toward TEX. Both starters miss bats (10.67 K/9, 10.34 K/9) in a neutral park; total 7.69 vs market 7.5 is close but lean under given quality arms.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U +110 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%over
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Eury PérezMIA starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 fanduel / U +106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.585%under
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +102TEX / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -117
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total