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SFG 1 / MIA 2
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
MIAMiami Marlins55%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterLogan WebbConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
MIAHome starterRyan GustoConfirmed
SFG45%ML -143
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
MIA55%ML +120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap11.9 pts

Model has MIA 55.5% but market implies only 43% — a 12.5pp gap flags structural miss. Webb (3.46 ERA, 75 IP) vs Gusto (7.24 ERA, 14 IP) is a mismatch the model underweights. SFG road struggle (.388 OPS!) caps conviction. Total: model 9.02 vs market 8.5, lean over given Gusto's volatility.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan WebbSFG starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -134 fanduel / U +126 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%over
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-143 / +120SFG / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-141)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total