MLB / mlb / live
ARI 0 / MIA 2ARIArizona Diamondbacks52%
MIAMiami Marlins48%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill Kelly
Model pickARI moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterTyler Phillips
ARI52%ML +107
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
MIA48%ML -128
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts
Model and market agree on a coin flip (model 52.2% ARI, market 47.7% ARI). Phillips' 2.08 ERA in 43.3 IP is unsustainable; Kelly's 5.71 ERA in 58.3 IP is real. Arizona's 2.7 RPG offense (.564 OPS) is struggling badly. Model total 9.08 vs market 8.5 is close; lean over given Miami's offense advantage (4.6 RPG, .774 OPS) should exploit Kelly.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+107 / -128ARI / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total