MLB / mlb / live
ARI 0 / MIA 8ARIArizona Diamondbacks56%
MIAMiami Marlins44%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterRyne Nelson
Model pickARI moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterRyan Gusto
ARI56%ML -116
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
MIA44%ML -102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.1 pts
Model has ARI 55.7%, market has ARI 52.2% — modest comparison. Gusto's 10.8 ERA in 5.0 IP is a disaster, but tiny sample (half a start's worth). Nelson's 4.6 ERA in 72.1 IP is reliable. Model total 9.11 vs market 8.0 argues over; Gusto's struggles support it. ARI offense at 2.8 RPG/0.564 OPS is concerning for side confidence.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-116 / -102ARI / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total