MLB / mlb / live
ARI 6 / MIA 10ARIArizona Diamondbacks53%
MIAMiami Marlins47%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterZac Gallen
Model pickARI moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterMax Meyer
ARI53%ML +118
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIA47%ML -140
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.2 pts
Model predicts 9.05 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.55-run gap triggering the far-from-market flag. Both starters show alarming recent stats: Meyer 5.4 ERA in 5 IP, Gallen 9.0 ERA in 4 IP (tiny samples, ~1 start each). Market at 7.5 likely knows bullpens will dominate. I lean MIA on home field but pass confidence given small pitcher samples. Total lean over given offensive context.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -140ARI / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total