MLB / mlb / live
TBR 3 / MIA 4TBRTampa Bay Rays56%
MIAMiami Marlins44%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterShane McClanahan
Model pickTBR moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterLake Bachar
TBR56%ML -132
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
MIA44%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.2 pts
Both pitchers lack season stats (IP, ERA, K/9 all null). Lake Bachar has only 2 starts; McClanahan 10 but no visible numbers. Model predicts 9.24 vs market 8.0 — a 1.24-run gap suggests structural mispricing, likely favoring over. Without pitcher data, cannot confidently pick side despite TBR's superior record and offense.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +110TBR / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -111 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total