MLB / mlb / live
TBR 6 / MIA 0TBRTampa Bay Rays46%
MIAMiami Marlins54%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew Rasmussen
Model pickMIA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterRyan Gusto
TBR46%ML -132
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
MIA54%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.0 pts
Model favors MIA 53.6% vs market 45.2%, an 8.4pp gap. TBR is 36-23 with superior .802 OPS; MIA is 29-34. Rasmussen's 1.80 ERA in 5.0 IP is tiny sample but real. Model's total 9.32 vs market 8.0 is a 1.3-run miss. Lean TBR, over on total.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +110TBR / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total