MLB / mlb / live
NYM 0 / MIA 4NYMNew York Mets46%
MIAMiami Marlins54%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterChristian Scott
Model pickMIA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterTyler Phillips
NYM46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIA54%ML -130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.4 pts
Phillips has 2.0 season IP across 8 starts—this is a data quality issue masking as 'full'. Scott's stats are entirely null. Model is picking the worse team (24-29 vs 22-30, lower OPS, fewer runs) without credible pitcher data. Market has NYM favored at -112. No structural comparison visible; passing entirely.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130NYM / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total