MLB / mlb / live
ATL 8 / MIA 4ATLAtlanta Braves49%
MIAMiami Marlins51%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterMartín Pérez
Model pickMIA moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterBraxton Garrett
ATL49%ML -143
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
MIA51%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap7.5 pts
Model calls coin flip (51% MIA), market leans ATL (56% implied). ATL's 32-16 record vs MIA's 22-26 plus superior .789 OPS suggests market is a notable comparison point. Model total 9.1 vs market 8.5 is modest gap; MIA's 5.2 RPG at neutral park argues over has room. Defer to market on side, slight over lean on total.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-143 / +120ATL / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -107 / U -113
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total