MLB / mlb / live
ATL 8 / MIA 4ATLAtlanta Braves49%
MIAMiami Marlins51%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterMartín Pérez
Model pickMIA moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterBraxton Garrett
ATL49%ML -143
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
MIA51%ML +120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts
Model calls coin flip (51% MIA), market leans ATL (56% implied). ATL's 32-16 record vs MIA's 22-26 plus superior .789 OPS suggests market is a notable comparison point. Model total 9.1 vs market 8.5 is modest gap; MIA's 5.2 RPG at neutral park argues over has room. Defer to market on side, slight over lean on total.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-143 / +120ATL / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -107 / U -113
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total