MLB / mlb / live
BAL 9 / MIA 7BALBaltimore Orioles55%
MIAMiami Marlins45%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterChris Bassitt
Model pickBAL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterSandy Alcantara
BAL55%ML +112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
MIA45%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.9 pts
Model favors BAL 55.2%, market has MIA 54.8%—basically a coin flip. Alcantara's 0.00 ERA across 7.0 IP (10 starts) signals extreme small sample or injury return. Bassitt stats are null, adding uncertainty. Model's 9.22 total vs market 8.5 suggests structural miss; lean under given data gaps.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+112 / -132BAL / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total