MLB / mlb / live
STL 3 / MIA 5STLSt. Louis Cardinals56%
MIAMiami Marlins44%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMichael McGreevy
Model pickSTL moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterMax Meyer
STL56%ML +110
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
MIA44%ML -131
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap10.0 pts
Model favors STL 55.7% but market has MIA at 54%. McGreevy's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is a 1-start outlier, not a skill signal. Meyer's 5.40 ERA more reflective of true talent. Market correctly skeptical of tiny sample dominance. Model's 9.27 total vs market 8.5 suggests over lean given park neutrality.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -131STL / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total