MLB / mlb / live
MIL 5 / MIA 2MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
MIAMiami Marlins58%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Woodruff
Model pickMIA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterSandy Alcantara
MIL42%ML -106
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
MIA58%ML -112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.9 pts
Brandon Woodruff shows null season ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts logged—probable data pipeline issue masking true performance. Alcantara's 0.00 ERA across 7.0 IP in 10 starts is arithmetically impossible (likely placeholder). Model leaning MIA 57.5% vs market 50.9% on unverifiable pitcher inputs. Cannot assess ace matchup or total without valid SP data.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -112MIL / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -111
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total